Simulation models to predict ecological risk of toxins in freshwater systems

Abstract

The application of ecological models for prognosis of pollutant effects on freshwater plankton communities is demonstrated by three examples: (l)an individual-based model to predict population interactions under pollutant stress in laboratory systems; (2) a compartment model for analysis of outdoor microcosm experiments and hazard assessment of lest substances; and (3) a more detailed compartment model which is developed to predict direct and indirect effects of toxins in lakes of different tTophic states. Possible approaches of estimating ecological risk using the described stochastic models are presented and problems are discussed. © 1993 Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer.