Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Peshawar District, Pakistan

Abstract

The seismic provisions for the Building Code of Pakistan were revised after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and these have resulted in the introduction of a macrozonation ground motion hazard map in the seismic provisions. The macrozonation map proposes a peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the return period of 475 yr for Pakistan for flat rock sites. After the macrozonation, the next step is to develop the surface ground motion assessment studies for the cities, districts and tehsils of Pakistan. In this study, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is used for the Peshawar District. The PSHA, consistent with the classical Cornell approach, is carried out to obtain the seismic hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra of PGA values for the return periods of 150, 475, 975 and 2475 yr at a grid spacing of 0.1 ∘× 0.1 ∘. The PGA for Peshawar at 150, 475, 975 and 2475 yr return period is estimated as 0.23, 0.34, 0.39 and 0.45g, respectively, for rock flat outcrop site conditions. The surface ground motion maps proposed in this study incorporate the local soil effects using amplification factors based on shear wave velocity obtained as a proxy to the topographic slope. The resultant ground surface hazard assessment proposes the PGA value of 0.63g for the return period of 475 yr and 0.89g for the return period of 2475 yr. The maps developed in the current study are important inputs for the structural designing, risk assessment and land use planning of the Peshawar District.