Sustainable Development of the Digital Economy on the Basis of Managing Social and Technological Threats

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to determine the perspectives of bringing the model of the digital economy in accordance with the current requirements to its sustainability and to develop the recommendations for managing its threats, the key of which – in the case of the digital economy – are social and technological threats. Design/Methodology/Approach: The authors use scenario modeling for studying the accumulated experience of formation of the digital economy (2013–2018) and determining the scenarios of development of the digital economy in the long-term from the positions of its sustainability. The analyzed indicator is growth rate of GDP in constant prices. The research objects are two countries that occupy the leading positions in the global rating of countries as to the level of competitiveness of the digital economy (IMD) – the USA and Singapore; two countries with peripheral positions in this rating – China and Russia; and two countries at the bottom of the rating – Indonesia and Venezuela. Findings: It is determined that practical implementation of the model of the digital economy does not guarantee its sustainable development – its growth could take place according to one of the three scenarios: Stable (absence of fluctuations of growth rate of GDP in stable prices – e.g., in Indonesia and China); unstable development and crisis (vivid fluctuations of growth rate of GDP in constant prices – e.g., in Venezuela and Russia); sustainable growth (the most preferable scenario, which envisages increase of growth rate of GDP in constant prices – e.g., in Singapore and the USA). Social and technological factors largely determine the scenario according to which the digital economy develops. Originality/Value: The most probable threats to the digital economy are determined. For managing them, the authors offer recommendations, which practical implementation will stimulate the neutralization of social and technological threats, will allow preventing crises, and will ensure stability or sustainable growth of the digital economy in the long-term.