Transmission of dengue hemorrhagic fever and climate variability in Jakarta

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has become an endemic in major cities in Indonesia. The climate change and poor level of awareness and knowledge of the community in Indonesia have caused an increase in the DHF cases. Outbreaks on January until April 2015, the morbidity rate reached 50.75. In 1996, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted threefold increase in the dengue hemorrhagic fever incidents in Indonesia by 2070, if the environment and community conditions do not improve. This study aims to provide a dynamic model to predict the dynamics of the DHF incidents based on climate variability in the Special Capital Region of Jakarta. The design of this study was ecologic study with hypothesis test, modelling, simulation, and intervention. In collecting the data, interview with respondents and measurement of climate variables were conducted. Interviews with respondents include the level of knowledge, attitudes, and behaviour (PSP) of the community. Measurements of climate factors include rainfall, temperature, humidity and CO2 level in the ambient environment. The DHF system dynamics model simulation shows that the significant effect on the decline of Breeding Places and the decrease of DHF cases were achieved by increasing the participation of the community to actively control water places that are potential for mosquito breeding places.