Agricultural land use and drinking water demand

Abstract

The assessment of agricultural water demand and agricultural land use is a common element in quantitative model-based policy analysis. Economic, political and pre-existing climatic and soil conditions shape the structure of agricultural land use which determines drinking water demand and nutrient input from agriculture. These factors vary strongly across regions. A nonlinear process analytical model based on agricultural statistics on district level was used to calculate parameters such as farm incomes, optimum cultivation plan, animal husbandry, quantities of fertiliser and the demand for drinking water at district level. To produce a more detailed picture with a higher spatial resolution, the regional optimization model was combined with an agricultural actor model that simulates farmers’ crop management decisions. An allocation tool was developed to allocate the different farm actors on a spatial unit of 1 × 1 km. For the analysis modelled yield changes from interdisciplinary global change scenarios were used.