Relevant temperatures in mosquito and malaria biology

Abstract

Most biological process-based models that approximate malaria risk use mean (usually monthly) outdoor air temperature to estimate the various mosquito and parasite life history variables that influence disease transmission intensity. However, mosquitoes, and parasites within them, do not experience 'average temperatures' , but are exposed to temperatures that can fluctuate considerably throughout the day. In addition, endophilic mosquitoes will be exposed to indoor temperatures and not directly to outdoor air temperature. Further, mosquito larvae live in aquatic habitats and so again, are not exposed directly to outdoor air temperatures. In this chapter we highlight how these different temperatures can all change malaria risk predictions. To understand malaria dynamics, inform operational control objectives and predict consequences of climate change, we need a better mechanistic understanding of vector-parasite interactions, with improved integration of the biological and environmental parameters at a scale relevant to conditions actually experienced by both mosquitoes and malaria parasites.