Survival Nomogram for Metastasis Colon Cancer Patients Based on SEER Database

Abstract

Introduction: A prediction model for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of metastatic colon cancer (mCC) patients was developed by analyzing important risk factors for the prognosis of mCC patients based on the SEER database. Method: The characteristic of 10,946 patients diagnosed with mCC between 2010 and 2015 was obtained from the SEER database. The population was randomly divided into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate cox for independent predictors of mCC prognosis were performed, and nomogram was constructed. The accuracy of the model was verified by calibration curves, ROC curves, and C-index, and the clinical utility of the model was analyzed using decision analysis curves. Result: Age, primary site, grade, surgery, and other eight factors were significantly associated with the prognosis of mCC patients, and these predictors were included in the construction of the nomogram. The C-index was 0.731 (95% CI 0.725–0.737) and 0.736 (95% CI 0.726–0.746) for the training cohort and the validation set, respectively. The results of the ROC curve analysis indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) exceeded 0.7 for both the training cohort and the validation set at 1, 3, and 5 years. Conclusion: The constructed prediction model had an excellent predictive accuracy, which will help clinical decision-making of mCC patients after surgery and individualized treatment.