Dealing with Noisy Absences to Optimize Species Distribution Models: An Iterative Ensemble Modelling Approach

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widespread in ecology and conservation biology, but their accuracy can be lowered by non-environmental (noisy) absences that are common in species occurrence data. Here we propose an iterative ensemble modelling (IEM) method to deal with noisy absences and hence improve the predictive reliability of ensemble modelling of species distributions. In the IEM approach, outputs of a classical ensemble model (EM) were used to update the raw occurrence data. The revised data was then used as input for a new EM run. This process was iterated until the predictions stabilized. The outputs of the iterative method were compared to those of the classical EM using virtual species. The IEM process tended to converge rapidly. It increased the consensus between predictions provided by the different methods as well as between those provided by different learning data sets. Comparing IEM and EM showed that for high levels of non-environmental absences, iterations significantly increased prediction reliability measured by the Kappa and TSS indices, as well as the percentage of well-predicted sites. Compared to EM, IEM also reduced biases in estimates of species prevalence. Compared to the classical EM method, IEM improves the reliability of species predictions. It particularly deals with noisy absences that are replaced in the data matrices by simulated presences during the iterative modelling process. IEM thus constitutes a promising way to increase the accuracy of EM predictions of difficult-to-detect species, as well as of species that are not in equilibrium with their environment. © 2012 Lauzeral et al.