Economic Consequences of Brexit for Poland

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to analyse the economic impact of Brexit on the Polish economy. The analysis shows that Brexit may have various consequences for the Polish economy depending on the exact shape of post-Brexit economic relations between the EU and the UK. While most macroeconomic analyses suggest that Britain’s departure from the EU will have a negative effect on overall GDP growth, the actual impact of Brexit on the Polish economy may be negligible. When it comes to migration, Brexit can have a positive impact on the Polish economy. A key goal from the point of view of Poland’s economic interests should be to use Brexit to reverse migration trends and attract back some of the tens of thousands of Poles living and working in Britain. Thus, Brexit may positively influence Poland’s labour market and long-term economic growth. Meanwhile, Brexit may negatively affect trade and foreign investment, though the actual impact may vary depending on the Brexit scenario. Interestingly, Brexit should improve the position of Poland and its regional Visegrad Group partners in the Council of the European Union and the European Council. It will also change the bargaining power of different coalitions of countries, including the possibility of voting or blocking decisions.