Will rising powers undermine global norms? The case of gender-balanced decision-making

Abstract

Will rising world powers tilt global norms in less progressive directions? While there has been much theoretical speculation on this question, few scholars have explored it empirically. This article uses existing empirical evidence to test the extent to which countries compromise their own values to gain favor with influential countries. We analyze the gender of ambassadors sent to rising powers and established powers and suggest that this analysis generates insight into the likely effects of rising powers on global norms. We find that the probability that a country will send a woman ambassador to a rising power is significantly lower than the probability that it will send a woman ambassador to an established world power. We show that this difference increases when the sending country exhibits high levels of international economic dependence. Our findings imply that the rise of countries like China, Russia, and India may undermine the global gender-balanced decision-making norm and progressive global norms more broadly.