Estimates of the damage costs of climate change: Part II. Dynamic estimates

Abstract

Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts are expressed as functions of climate change and 'vulnerability'. Vulnerability is measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, population above 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine world regions, for the period 2000-2200, for agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector- borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term, the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be the crucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of the sector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negative or positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at. Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorer regions.