Prediction of Caesarean Delivery

Abstract

For expectant parents, a first birth is notable for its unpredictability, and the path to safe labour and delivery is commonly complicated by a requirement for unplanned caesarean delivery. The ability to anticipate an uncomplicated vaginal birth, or to predict the requirement for unplanned caesarean delivery, carries the potential to facilitate optimal birth choices. For example, elective caesarean delivery confers substantially less risk than unplanned caesarean delivery performed during the course of labour. Pre-delivery knowledge of a high predictive risk of requiring intrapartum caesarean delivery could lead to women opting to deliver by elective caesarean delivery, thereby lowering associated risks. Equally, pre-labour knowledge of a high prospect of achieving a successful and uncomplicated vaginal birth could result in enhanced motivation for women to deliver in a less medicalised environment. Predictive risk models have been utilised to good effect in other areas of medicine. The incorporation of a risk predictive tool for intrapartum caesarean delivery would enable women and their caregivers to choose the most appropriate management plan for each woman.