A Spatial Model-Based Decision Support System for Evaluating Agricultural Landscapes Under the Aspect of Climate Change

Abstract

Decision support for developing practicable, resilient climate change adaptation strategies for the sustainable use of agro-landscapes encompasses a wide range of options and issues. So far, only a few suitable tools and methods have been available to farmers, regional planners and other stakeholders to support decision-making processes in this direction. The model-based interactive spatial information and decision support system, LandCaRe-DSS, closes this methodical gap. This system does not only support interactive scenario simulations and multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional level by providing information about the complex long-term impacts of climate change. It also helps different stakeholders to find suitable, sustainable agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change (crop rotation, soil tillage, fertilisation, irrigation, price and cost changes etc.) at the local or farm level. LandCaRe-DSS uses different ecological impact models, including for crop yield, erosion risk, regional evapotranspiration, total water flow-out and irrigation water demand. At the local level, a farm economy model is directly coupled with both the biophysical-based agro-ecosystem model MONICA and the statistical-based crop yield model YIELDSTAT to simulate the economic consequences of regional climate change and of proposed agricultural adaptation strategies. Due to the modular architecture and innovative design of LandCaRe-DSS, alternative or new impact models can easily be incorporated into the system. Scenario simulation runs can be realised in a reasonable amount of time. The interactive LandCaRe-DSS prototype offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools and an information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This article describes the conceptual framework, the structure, the methodology and basic principles of operating LandCaRe-DSS. A number of selected examples demonstrate the versatility of LandCaRe-DSS applications. Using different scales and regions as examples, the impact of climate change is shown on: the ontogenesis of winter wheat for Müncheberg, Germany; the start, end and duration of the vegetation period in two German regions Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km2) and Weisseritz (humid mountain area, 400 km2); irrigation water demand in Thuringia, Germany and the winter wheat yield in the Prenzlau region, Germany. Using LandCaRe-DSS up to 2075 for the Uckermark und Weisseritz regions, the effects and impacts of different agricultural adaption strategies were analysed taking into account irrigation, the absence of soil tillage and two different cropping ratios (actual cropping ratio vs. cropping ratio enriched with energy maize). Thanks to the modular structure of LandCaRe-DSS, little effort is required to adapt the whole system to geo-data valid for other regions or countries; incorporate other static or dynamic impact models; switch to other climate scenarios and implement other interface communication languages. The LandCaRe-DSS is constantly being developed, updated and adapted in different research projects such as the REGKLAM project for agricultural regions of Saxony, Germany, and the CARBIOCIAL project for regions within the Mato Grosso and Pará states of Brazil. It has already been used in a number of climate scenario studies for the Federal States of Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony. In the years ahead, international cooperative activities will be initiated with institutions from St. Petersburg, Russia, and Puławy, Poland, in order to use, adapt and advance this system.