Sociodemographic and clinical determinants of in-facility case fatality rate for 938 adult Ebola patients treated at Sierra Leone Ebola treatment center

Abstract

Background: The 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak recorded the highest incidence and mortality since the discovery of the virus in Zaire in 1976; with more than 28,000 probable and confirmed EVD cases and 11,000 deaths. Studies relating to previous outbreaks usually involved small sample sizes. In this study we are set to identify those sociodemographic and clinical features that predict in-facility mortality among EVD patients using a large sample size. Methods: We analysed the anonymized medical records of 938 laboratory-confirmed EVD patients 15 years old and above who received treatment at The 34 Military Hospital and The Police Training School EVD Treatment Centers in Sierra Leone in the period June 2014 to April 2015. We used both univariable and multivariable logistic regression to determine the predictors for in-facility mortality of these patients based on their sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Results: The median age of the EVD cases was 33 years (interquartile range = 25 to 40 years). The majority of the EVD cases were male (59.0%) and had secondary level education (79.3%). We reported a low overall in-facility case fatality rate of 26.4%. The associations between case fatality rates and EVD patients who reported fever, abdominal pain, cough, diarrhoea, vomiting, fatigue, haemorrhage, dysphagia, conjunctival injection, dyspnea, and skin rash at the time of admission were all statistically significant (p < 0.05). Our preferred model with the age group 65 years and above alongside the following clinical symptoms; diarrhoea, vomiting, fatigue, dysphagia, conjunctival injection, dyspnea and cough produced a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.93. Conclusions: We constructed a simple model that can be optimally used alongside other rapid EVD diagnostic tools to identify EVD in-facility treatment mortality predictors based on the sociodemographic characteristics and clinical symptoms of adult EVD patients. We also reported low EVD cases among patients with secondary and tertiary education. These subpopulations of our patients who are generally informed about the signs and symptoms of EVD, alongside our treatment regimen may have been responsible for our comparatively lower case fatality rate.