Trend analysis of climatic variables in the Indian subcontinent

Abstract

The objective of this study is to detect and assess the significant trend in the spatial and temporal variations in the climatic variables in India and to identify the most vulnerable locations to climate change in India. For that purpose, trend analysis of various climatic variables such as monthly mean temperature, surface pressure, relative humidity was conducted for the Indian subcontinent. Gridded data at 2.5° resolution obtained from National Centre for Environmental Prediction / National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data 1 is used due to its wide acceptability and easy availability. Also, widely used trend analysis methods, viz., Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s estimator method and linear regression were used to detect and quantify the significant trend. Results revealed that southern India is more vulnerable to climate change due to the significant increase in temperature and significant decrease in relative humidity. Surface pressure is increasing throughout India and the increase is statistically significant. The results will be very useful for policy makers for providing proper mitigation plans.