Medium range sea ice prediction in support of Japanese research vessel MIRAI’s expedition cruise in 2018

Abstract

The Japanese research vessel MIRAI sailed into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from 4 to 25 November 2018 to study the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice of the Chukchi Sea. Early winter dynamics and thermodynamics can cause sea ice conditions to change over short timescales. Heavy ice pressure may build up in the compression of compact ice. MIRAI is an ice-strengthened ship that has to avoid thick sea ice and areas of high sea ice coverage, and therefore precise medium-range forecast of sea ice distribution is key to its safe and efficient navigation. A high-resolution (about 2.5 km) coupled ice–ocean model was used to produce medium-range (10-day) forecasts for the expedition. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s atmospheric model high-resolution 10-day forecast was used as forcing data. Forecast skill is measured by ice edge error, which is the average distance between forecast and observed ice edges. Using a threshold of 15% sea ice concentration to indicate the ice edge, the maximum ice edge error in the ice–ocean coupled model in the Chukchi Sea is 16 km, indicating that the model is able to provide 10-day forecasts with sufficient accuracy for the vessel’s operation.