Projected conservation of agricultural land to prevent detrimental effects of land-use changes upstream Brantas Watershed in Indonesia

Abstract

This research aims to project the conservation of agricultural land due to land-use changes in 2029 in the upstream Brantas watershed, in avoiding agricultural land degradation to realize sustainable agriculture. This study applies the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov combined model to quantitatively predict and spatially simulate the trend of land-use change in 2029. Analysis of total sediment and flow out uses Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) analysis applied to land use in 2019, and land use in 2029 the CA-Markov prediction result. After that, a technical vegetative and civilian conservation projection model was carried out using SWAT. The results of the observation-model sediment validation resulted in a Nash- Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value of 0.87. The projection results of agricultural land conservation in land-use in 2029 resulted in a total sediment value of 1500,483 tons/ha/year, indicating a decrease in total sediment of 55 % compared to the total sediment in 2029 without conservation, and and 8% compared to the total sediment in 2019.