Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China

Abstract

Natural vegetation on both sides of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) is the only barrier—a critical ecological niche—between the economic belt in the artificial oasis and the Taklimakan Desert. To understand the impact of human activities on the TRB, we explored the spatial and temporal variations in land use/land cover change (LUCC) and landscape pattern evolution from 2000 to 2020. These variations were simulated for 2030 with the 20 years of data using the cellular automata–Markov model and geographical information system analyses. The results predicted substantial LUCCs in the lower reaches of the Tarim River (TRlr), with 3400 km2 (20.29%) of the total area (16,760.94 km2) undergoing changes. Wetland, artificial land, grassland, farmland, and forestland areas increased by 578.59, 43.90, 339.90, 201.62, and 536.11 km2, respectively, during the period from 2020 to 2030. The only decreases were in the Gobi/other deserts and bare soils (1700.13 km2). We also determined current and future changes in TRlr landscape pattern indices at the class and landscape levels. Combined with a field survey and hydrological data, theoretical support for effective land use management strategies is provided. The findings offer a scientific basis for future ecological civilization construction and sustainable development in the TRB.