Avaliação econômica não determinística pelo método de Monte Carlo de plantios de Eucalyptus spp. para a produção de celulose no sudoeste paulista

Abstract

This study presents a non-deterministic evaluation of clonal Eucalyptus grandis x E. urophylla plantations spaced on a 3 x 2 m grid and managed for pulp production in the Southwest of the State of São Paulo. A local company that operates as a forest services provider in the Municipality of Itapetininga, SP, provided data of local planting and annual maintenance costs. Probability distributions were adjusted from the data to express the variability of a group of important operational performance parameters. A Monte Carlo approach was used to simulate operational performance base on the adjusted distribution functions. Risk could be expressed as a variation observed in the values of the discounted cash flow formulas calculated to evaluate the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR). The simulation confirmed the economic viability of single cultivation of eucalyptus for pulp production in the area, showing low risk in both highly mechanized and labor intensive scenarios. Mean net present values were positive for an 8% annual interest rate, R$ 2,398.78 per hectare and R$ 2,437.45 per hectare, respectively. The mean internal rate of return reached 15.58% and 15.97% per year, respectively. The sensitivity analysis for the price of a cubic meter of wood resulted in a scenario to create situations of risk where 5% of the observations returned negative NPV and average internal rates of return lower than the 8% pa.