Health data-driven machine learning algorithms applied to risk indicators assessment for chronic kidney disease

Abstract

Purpose: As global aging progresses, the health management of chronic diseases has become an important issue of concern to governments. Influenced by the aging of its population and improvements in the medical system and healthcare in general, Taiwan’s population of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has tended to grow year by year, including the incidence of high-risk cases that pose major health hazards to the elderly and middle-aged populations. Methods: This study analyzed the annual health screening data for 65,394 people from 2010 to 2015 sourced from the MJ Group – a major health screening center in Taiwan – including data for 18 risk indicators. We used five prediction model analysis methods, namely, logistic regression (LR) analysis, C5.0 decision tree (C5.0) analysis, stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) analysis, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGboost), with estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) data to determine G3a, G3b & G4 stage CKD risk factors. Results: The LR analysis (AUC=0.848), SGB analysis (AUC=0.855), and XGboost (AUC=0.858) generated similar classification performance levels and all outperformed the C5.0 and MARS methods. The study results showed that in terms of CKD risk factors, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and uric acid (UA) were identified as the first and second most important indicators in the models of all five analysis methods, and they were also clinically recognized as the major risk factors. The results for systolic blood pressure (SBP), SGPT, SGOT, and LDL were similar to those of a related study. Interestingly, however, socioeconomic status-related education was found to be the third important indicator in all three of the better performing analysis methods, indicating that it is more important than the other risk indicators of this study, which had different levels of importance according to the different methods. Conclusion: The five prediction model methods can provide high and similar classification performance in this study. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that education as the socioeconomic status should be an important factor for CKD, as high educational level showed a negative and highly significant correlation with CKD. The findings of this study should also be of value for further discussions and follow-up research.