Energy transition, CO2 mitigation, and air pollutant emission reduction: scenario analysis from IPAC model

Abstract

In China, Energy transition was proposed in the “12th Five-Year Plan” and gained resilient support by “Energy Revolution” announced by President Xi Jinping in 2014. In Paris Agreement, there are targets set up for 2100 to be well below 2 °C, with ambitious target on 1.5 °C. China signed the agreement and will support the global target. In the meantime, large-scale actions were initiated in 2013 by the national action plan on air pollution control for the period from 2013 to 2017. None of these strategies has clear long-term target. In our studies, energy transition will be decided by the long-term target of CO2 emission reduction, air pollutant reduction, and energy security. This paper will present the analysis from IPAC model, by setting up reduction target for CO2 emission under the global 2 °C and 1.5 °C target. Energy transition, CO2 emission, and air pollutant reduction will be discussed based on these targets. For air pollutants, SO2, NOx, PM2.5, black carbon, and mercury will be included. From the results, there will be a significant energy transition by large-scale use of renewable energy, nuclear and the share of coal will be reduced to less than 20% in 2050 from 66% in 2015. Energy transition will also contribute to a drastic reduction in air pollutants.