Os determinantes do impacto da crise financeira internacional sobre a taxa de crescimento do PIB

Abstract

The main goal of this work is to evaluate the determinants of the impact of the international financial crisis over the change in GDP growth rates (2009-2008) for a set of 118 countries using OLS estimation. The econometric results for the estimated models using the difference in the real GDP growth rate of 2009 and the 2008 expected rate for 2009 as the dependent variable indicates that real exchange rate appreciation and deterioration in the investor´s perception are associated to a higher difference in the real GDP growth rate for 2009 relative what was predicted in 2008 for 2009. Other than this, an increase in international reserves and an improvement in government budget are associated to a decrease in the real GDP growth rate difference. Estimated results for the models using the difference in real GDP growth rates of 2009 and 2008 as the dependent variable reveals that countries with higher levels of international reserves, per capita income levels and the degree of exchange rate flexibility are assoiated to lower changes in GDP growth rates from 2009 to 2008.