Explaining the asymmetry in the Sino-Indian Strategic Rivalry

Abstract

China views India as an asymmetric (‘lesser’) rival that has the ability to obstruct China’s grand strategic goals. China’s long-term goals are domination in East Asia followed by Asia-wide domination, and finally global pre-eminence. The asymmetric dimension of their rivalry is rooted in the ego-relevancy cognitive bias in the Chinese elites’ perceptions of Indian history and statehood. Consequently, China does not consider India as a ‘peer’. This perceptual dimension pre-dates their material power asymmetry. Nevertheless, China perceives India as an ‘imperial’ rival that interferes in China’s Tibet. Furthermore, India’s ‘hegemonic’ ambitions in Southern Asia pose a challenge for China at the pan-Asian level, and may even undermine Chinese domination in East Asia. Thus understood, there are three implications for the Sino-Indian rivalry. First, the positional and territorial dimensions of their rivalry are now intertwined and will be difficult to resolve. Second, this is not just a dyadic rivalry as it will interact with their relations with the United States, Japan, and Pakistan, thereby creating new uncertainties. Finally, the military undertones of this rivalry are spilling over into other regional countries. This rivalry will intensify if India pursues internal or external balancing, or if India charts a distinct path to politico-economic modernisation.