The application of ensemble precipitation forecasts to reservoir operation

Abstract

Although inflow forecasts are useful information that can be used for improving reservoir operation efficiency, uncertainty is still a challenge for getting sound operation results. Ensemble precipitation forecasts can take uncertainties under consideration, so they have been a research topic for improving reservoir operations. In this paper, a rainfall–runoff model, combined of a multiple linear regression model (for non-flood seasons) and the Xinanjiang model (for flood seasons), for inflow forecasts and a stochastic dynamic programming model for reservoir operations are developed in order to effectively use the ensemble precipitation forecast. To explore the best way for using the ensemble precipitation forecast, two post-processing techniques, i.e., ensemble forecast averaging (EFA) and interval value (IV), are tested. The ensemble precipitation forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was chosen due to its high accuracy, and the Huanren reservoir, located in China, was used to test the newly developed models. The results show that, compared with the traditional rule curve, hydropower generation increases by 4.86% and 4.55%, respectively, when EFA and IV are used, which indicates that the use of ensemble forecasts facilitates considerable improvements in operating performance.