Climate change impacts on Oklahoma wind resources: Potential energy output changes

Abstract

An extensive literature on climate change modeling points to future changes in wind climates. Some areas are projected to gain wind resources, while others are projected to lose wind resources. Oklahoma is presently wind rich with this resource extensively exploited for power generation. Our work examined the wind power implications under the IPCC's A2 scenario for the decades 2040-2049, 2050-2059 and 2060-2069 as compared to model reanalysis and Oklahoma Mesonetwork observations for the base decade of 1990-1999. Using two western Oklahoma wind farms as examples, we used North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) modeling outputs to calculate changes in wind power generation. The results show both wind farms to gain in output for all decades as compared to 1990-1999. Yet, the results are uneven by seasons and with some decades exhibiting decreases in the fall. These results are of interest in that it is clear that investors cannot count on wind studies of the present to adequately characterize future productivity. If our results are validated over time, Oklahoma stands to gain wind resources through the next several decades.