Energy Security for the Baltic Region

Abstract

Since the events of January 2006, in which natural gas supplies to Ukraine and Georgia were interrupted, energy security for Europe has become a ‘hot issue’, with many national leaders calling for changes in policies and actions (see Appendix 1). Achieving energy security for the Baltic region is particularly difficult because of the way this region has evolved with the end of the Cold War. The energy infrastructure was created when this region was part of the Soviet Union. Now Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are independent nations that have joined the European Union. As part of the process that led to its membership in the European Union, Lithuania has agreed to shut down the two nuclear power plants at Ignalina (3000 MW of installed capacity) that have been providing most of the electric generation for Lithuania and a large amount for export to neighbouring countries. Unit #1 was shut down at the end of 2004, and the agreement specifies that Unit #2 will cease to operate by the end of 2009. While proposals have been made for expanded use of renewable energy supplies, it seems clear that most of the replacement for this nuclear generation will, in the near term, have to come from fossil fuel generation, such as use of natural gas from Russia, plus perhaps some limited use of heavy oil (‘orimulsion’) from Venezuela.