Potential predictability of lower-tropospheric monsoon circulation and rainfall over India.

Abstract

The potential predictability of the lower tropospheric circulation and the rainfall over India during the peak summer monsoon season (July-August) is studied by analyzing the signal-to-noise ratio. Daily 700-mb heights, mean sea level pressure anomaly and rainfall at 220 stations for 21, 30 and 19 years, respectively, are used to represent the circulation and rainfall fields. The predictability of the circulation fields in general increases with decreasing latitude but is low over the area normally occupied by the monsoon trough. The potential predictability of rainfall is about 50% over the major parts of the country.-Authors