Searching for truth: Internet search patterns as a method of investigating online responses to a russian illicit drug policy debate

Abstract

Background: This is a methodological study investigating the online responses to a national debate over an important health and social problem in Russia. Russia is the largest Internet market in Europe, exceeding Germany in the absolute number of users. However, Russia is unusual in that the main search provider is not Google, but Yandex. Objective: This study had two main objectives. First, to validate Yandex search patterns against those provided by Google, and second, to test this method's adequacy for investigating online interest in a 2010 national debate over Russian illicit drug policy. We hoped to learn what search patterns and specific search terms could reveal about the relative importance and geographic distribution of interest in this debate. Methods: A national drug debate, centering on the anti-drug campaigner Egor Bychkov, was one of the main Russian domestic news events of 2010. Public interest in this episode was accompanied by increased Internet search. First, we measured the search patterns for 13 search terms related to the Bychkov episode and concurrent domestic events by extracting data from Google Insights for Search (GIFS) and Yandex WordStat (YaW). We conducted Spearman Rank Correlation of GIFS and YaW search data series. Second, we coded all 420 primary posts from Bychkov's personal blog between March 2010 and March 2012 to identify the main themes. Third, we compared GIFS and Yandex policies concerning the public release of search volume data. Finally, we established the relationship between salient drug issues and the Bychkov episode. Results: We found a consistent pattern of strong to moderate positive correlations between Google and Yandex for the terms "Egor Bychkov" (rs = 0.88, P < .001), "Bychkov" (rs = .78, P < .001) and "Khimki" (rs = 0.92, P < .001). Peak search volumes for the Bychkov episode were comparable to other prominent domestic political events during 2010. Monthly search counts were 146,689 for "Bychkov" and 48,084 for "Egor Bychkov", compared to 53,403 for "Khimki" in Yandex. We found Google potentially provides timely search results, whereas Yandex provides more accurate geographic localization. The correlation was moderate to strong between search terms representing the Bychkov episode and terms representing salient drug issues in Yandex-"illicit drug treatment" (rs= .90, P< .001), "illicit drugs" (rs= .76, P< .001), and "drug addiction" (rs= .74, P< .001). Google correlations were weaker or absent-"illicit drug treatment" (rs = .12, P = .58), "illicit drugs " (rs = -0.29, P = .17), and "drug addiction" (rs = .68, P < .001). Conclusions: This study contributes to the methodological literature on the analysis of search patterns for public health. This paper investigated the relationship between Google and Yandex, and contributed to the broader methods literature by highlighting both the potential and limitations of these two search providers. We believe that Yandex Wordstat is a potentially valuable, and underused data source for researchers working on Russian-related illicit drug policy and other public health problems. The Russian Federation, with its large, geographically dispersed, and politically engaged online population presents unique opportunities for studying the evolving influence of the Internet on politics and policy, using low cost methods resilient against potential increases in censorship.