The influence of solar-modulated regional circulations and galactic cosmic rays on global cloud distribution

Abstract

The influence of solar forcing and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) ionization on the global distribution of clouds is investigated using 42 years ERA-5 data (1979–2020). In the mid-latitudes over Eurasia, GCR and cloudiness are negatively correlated, which argues against the ionization theory of enhanced cloud droplet nucleation due to increased GCR during minima in the solar cycle. In the tropics, the solar cycle and cloudiness are positively correlated in regional Walker circulations below 2 km altitude. The phase relationship between amplification of regional tropical circulations and the solar cycle is consistent with total solar forcing, rather than modulation of GCR. However, in the intertropical convergence zone, changes in the cloud distribution are consistent with a positive coupling with GCR in the free atmosphere (2–6 km). This study opens some future challenges and research directions, and clarifies how atmospheric circulation at the regional scale can help in understanding solar-induced climate variability.