Potential application of model output statistics (MOS) to forecasts of surface ozone concentrations

Abstract

Statistical forecast equations have been developed for the Greater St. Louis, Missouri, area using Model Output Statistics (MOS) derived from the National Meteorological Center's Limited-Area Fine Mesh (LFM) model. They are used to forecast both the probability of ozone concentrations exceeding the 1971 National Ambient Air Quality Standard and the daily 1 h maximum. Predictions extend out to two days (48h). The application of MOS to forecasts of maximum O3 concentrations lead to skilful [better than chance, persistence or climatology (seasonality)] 24 and 48 h objective predictions. The application of MOS to probability statements about O3 concentrations also resulted in reasonable success for 24 h and 48 h probability forecasts. These forecasts appear sufficiently successful to warrant consideration of the development of other equations for large metropolitan areas where O3 concentrations commonly exceed the standard.