Uncovering interpretable potential confounders in electronic medical records

Abstract

Randomized clinical trials (RCT) are the gold standard for informing treatment decisions. Observational studies are often plagued by selection bias, and expert-selected covariates may insufficiently adjust for confounding. We explore how unstructured clinical text can be used to reduce selection bias and improve medical practice. We develop a framework based on natural language processing to uncover interpretable potential confounders from text. We validate our method by comparing the estimated hazard ratio (HR) with and without the confounders against established RCTs. We apply our method to four cohorts built from localized prostate and lung cancer datasets from the Stanford Cancer Institute and show that our method shifts the HR estimate towards the RCT results. The uncovered terms can also be interpreted by oncologists for clinical insights. We present this proof-of-concept study to enable more credible causal inference using observational data, uncover meaningful insights from clinical text, and inform high-stakes medical decisions.