Onboard analysis of ship stability based on time-varying autoregressive modeling procedure

Abstract

In this study, it is clarified that a dynamical system of rolling motion can be approximated by a time-varying autoregressive model, which is a kind of statistical model. As the result, when it is possible to measure the time series of rolling motion, a ship’s stability can be judged based on time series analysis by using a time-varying autoregressive modeling procedure. As for the verification of this method, the results of the model experiment for parametric roll resonance were used. It was confirmed that an evaluation of ship safety is possible based on the proposed procedure.