Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Production: Case of Savannah Region, Northern Togo

Abstract

Among the numerous problems that are facing cotton farmers, climate change is one of the most important still out of their control. Adaptation appears to be one of the best alternatives. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of climate change on cotton production in the Savannah region of Togo. The study was conducted with 172 cotton farmers sampled randomly in many stages in order to determine the impact of climate change on cotton production. The impact assessment of climate change on cotton production was carried out using ATE (Average Treatment Effect) and ATET (Average Treatment Effect on the Treated) models introduced by Rubin in 1974. The results show that climate change has a significant negative impact at 1% level on cotton production observed with an average decrease per farmer of 2330 kg, on the yield efficiency with an average decrease of 515 kg/ha and on the income level with an average decrease of $745 per farmer. Climate change reduces the level of soil fertility, favours pest resistance and leads to an increase in consumption of cotton production inputs per unit of area. The study also reveals a low level of adaptation of cotton farmers to climate change. The expansion of cultivated areas remains the main reaction of cotton farmers to climate’s negative effects. Raising producers’ awareness on the reality of climate change and adopting adaptation techniques and strategies would greatly improve cotton farmers’ adaptive capacity and positively affect cotton production in Savannah region, and Togo in general.