Research on the coupled risk of key nodes in maritime transport based on improved catastrophe theory

Abstract

Defining the degree of risk of maritime transport nodes is an important basis for studying the security status of maritime transport passages. However, some important straits or canals are key nodes in the maritime transport passage, and their system security conditions are affected by the interaction of uncertainty risk factors. This study addresses the issue of the security status of transport nodes from the perspective of the characteristics of influencing factors. With a focus on catastrophes and the mutual coupling characteristics of the factors that influence the security of maritime transport nodes, a model based on principal component analysis (PCA) and catastrophe theory (CT) is constructed, and the coupled risk degree of the key nodes in Chinese maritime transportation is empirically analysed. The results show that the Taiwan Strait has the lowest risk degree and that the Windward Strait has the highest risk degree among the key nodes in Chinese maritime transport. From the perspective of the security status of these key nodes, most nodes are currently in a stable and safe state.