Indonesian sustainable food-availability policy assessment using system dynamics: A solution for complexities

Abstract

In spite of being a large paddy and maize producer for the last decade, Indonesian farming has been suffering from high population, land conversion and low agricultural employment, which have been more daunting than environmental issues in achieving sustainability. They also arise in complex interrelationships, which create loops and cannot be managed individually. This paper presents a system dynamic simulation of Indonesian sustainable food availability assessment to support policy adjustment in achieving sustainability. A system dynamic model has been built to represent Indonesian sustainable food availability as a holistic system which contains economic, environment and social aspects elements and their interrelationships. Simulation has been also done in three stages for a seven policy-scenario and six combination policy-scenario options to analyse how they affect food availability and farming emissions. The principal contribution is a systemic and quantified assessment of sustainable Indonesian food availability using system dynamic for policy adjustment support. ISFA ratio and Food availability scores were set as the goal performance. As the result, a combination of scenario 5 and 4 has been the selected scenario for ISFA ratio and food availability scores 14.61 kg/capita/GgCO2 Eq and 159.6 kg/capita as the most sustainable policy.