Data-Driven Bidding Strategy for der Aggregator Based on Gated Recurrent Unit-Enhanced Learning Particle Swarm Optimization

Abstract

Distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbines (WTs), photovoltaics (PVs), energy storage systems (ESSs), local loads, and demand response (DR) are highly valued for environmental protection. However, their volatility poses several risks to the DER aggregator while formulating a profitable strategy for bidding in the day-ahead power market. This study proposes a data-driven bidding strategy framework for a DER aggregator confronted with various uncertainties. First, a data-driven forecasting model involving gated recurrent unit-enhanced learning particle swarm optimization (GRU-ELPSO) with improved mutual information (IMI) is employed to model renewables and local loads. It is critical for a DER aggregator to accurately estimate these components before bidding in the day-ahead power market. This aids in reducing the penalty costs of forecasting errors. Second, an optimal bidding strategy that is based on the information gap decision theory (IGDT) is formulated to address market price uncertainty. The DER aggregator is assumed to be risk-averse (RA) or risk-seeker (RS), and the corresponding bidding strategies are formulated according to the risk preferences thereof. Then, an hourly bidding profile is created for the DER aggregator to bid successfully in the day-ahead power market. The proposed data-driven bidding framework is evaluated using an illustrative system wherein a dataset is obtained from the PJM market. The results reveal the effectiveness of handling uncertainty by providing accurate forecasting results. In addition, the DER aggregator can bid effectively in the day-ahead power market according to its preference for robustness or high profit, with a suitable bidding profile.