The present climate of the Arctic Ocean and possible past and future states

Abstract

The N polar region climate is dominated by the annual cycle of solar radiation and the permanent pack ice which insulates the atmosphere from the waters of the Arctic Ocean. The long term stability of the sea ice cover is still unsure but is important in the context of the possible climatic effects of global warming in high latitudes. The nature of the atmosphere-ice-ocean processes and interactions in the Arctic area are outlined. Past climates, from the early Cainozoic, are examined from geological evidence, and models for possible modes of change analysed. Two major research lines for past/future conditions are based on: 1) the stability of the present sea ice cover and natural or human-induced climatic perturbations; 2) the modelling of conditions anticipated with an ice free ocean. Present knowledge is still very limited. -M.A.Bass