Carcinoma extent in prostate needle biopsy tissue in the prediction of whole gland tumor volume in a screening population

Abstract

Increasing prostate tumor volume has been shown to correlate with numerous adverse prognostic indicators for patients with prostate carcinoma. The ability to predict tumor volume from pretreatment parameters is potentially critical in the stratification of patients for different management strategies. We assessed the capacity of preoperative variables to predict tumor volume in 100 men diagnosed with prostate cancer in a prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening program. Preoperative information included total serum PSA concentration and needle biopsy tissue variables, including Gleason score, number of positive cores, linear extent of carcinoma in millimeters, greatest percentage of carcinoma (in a single core), total percentage of carcinoma (all cores), presence of perineural invasion, and percentage of high-grade carcinoma. The postoperative end point was total tumor volume in radical prostatectomy tissue, calculated by image analysis. We determined independently significant factors and generated a predictive model for whole gland tumor volume. Total tumor volume was related significantly in multivariate analysis to 3 preoperative variables: linear extent of carcinoma, exponential number of positive cores, and serum PSA. A predictive model generated based on these 3 variables accounted for only 65% of the natural deviance of the data owing to data-point scatter for individual patients, suggesting that additional variables are needed to more accurately predict tumor volume. Findings highlight the importance of reporting quantitative measures of tumor amount in prostate needle biopsy specimens; several measures of tumor extent (vs 1 measure) provide maximal information on prostate cancer size.