A history of weather reporting from aircraft and turbulence forecasting for commercial aviation

Abstract

Manual pilot reporting of weather conditions, including turbulence, has been standard procedure during most of the Twentieth century. By the late 1940s, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) had developed standards which included aircraft-based weather observations by pilots and subsequent government distribution. In the USA, commercial airlines developed their own collection and distribution methods. This was in response to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requirements that pilots should report hazardous weather, and airlines should have ability to monitor the progress of every flight. By the 1980s, flight location as well as wind and temperature were being automatically reported in some areas of the world. But automated turbulence report capability was mainly a research effort with some operational capability introduced during the 1990s and 2000s. Aviation weather forecasting has seen many government as well as airline efforts over the last 80-100 years. By World War II, military aircraft such as the B-17 were able to reach altitudes of over 30,000 ft. This initiated the need for weather forecasting in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Turbulence and mountain wave forecasting emphasis increased significantly with the transition from propeller to jet powered commercial passenger aircraft in the 1950s and 1960s. By the 2000s, government developed forecasting tools such as the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) had begun to mature, and airlines continued to focus on minimizing turbulence exposure for passenger and flight attendant safety as well as comfort. Many US airlines have come and gone, likewise for airline meteorology offices. A brief history of Northwest (NWA), Delta, and Western meteorology; turbulence forecasting, including mountain wave; and the NWA/Delta Turbulence Plot system provide added perspective. Still today, manual and automated aircraft-based weather observations as well as government and airline produced turbulence forecasts are very valuable.