Uncertainty in crossing time of 2 °C warming threshold over China

Abstract

The 2 °C warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature (SAT) change over China will reach 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2 °C threshold-crossing time (TCT) of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a ±1σ range of intermodel SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 °C TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncertainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensitivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 °C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a climate more sensitive to CO2 forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radiation, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.