Mode estimation of probabilistic hybrid systems

Abstract

Model-based diagnosis and mode estimation capabilities excel at diagnosing systems whose symptoms are clearly distinguished from normal behavior. A strength of mode estimation, in particular, is its ability to track a system’s discrete dynamics as it moves between different behavioral modes. However, often failures bury their symptoms amongst the signal noise, until their effects become catastrophic. We introduce a hybrid mode estimation system that extracts mode estimates from subtle symptoms. First, we introduce a modeling formalism, called concurrent probabilistic hybrid automata (cPHA), that merge hidden Markov models (HMM) with continuous dynamical system models. Second, we introduce hybrid estimation as a method for tracking and diagnosing cPHA, by unifying traditional continuous state observers with HMM belief update. Finally, we introduce a novel, any-time, any-space algorithm for computing approximate hybrid estimates.