Assessment of climate change effects to precipitation patterns using statistical process control methods

Abstract

There is a number of reports underlining ongoing temperature increase and precipitation pattern change in the world during the last decades. This paper presents the application of the statistical process control (SPC) methods to check whether the present changes are "statistically expected". The method is based on the comparison of the precipitation patterns from the 1961-1990 reference period with the recent precipitations from the 2000-2010 period in the Bihać area in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It can be inferred that the monthly precipitation patterns have changed; the minimum precipitation is shifted from January to July and the maximum from late autumn to late summer. Applying the criteria often used in the SPC methods for the assessment of "out of control" situations, it may be inferred that the observed changes in the total monthly precipitation are statistically expected.