Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system

Abstract

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon are shown to have undergone significant interdecadal changes in variance and coherency over the last 125 years. Wavelet analysis is applied to indexes of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (Nino3 SST), the Southern Oscillation index, and all-India rainfall. Time series of 2-7-yr variance indicate intervals of high ENSO-monsoon variance (1875-1920 and 1960-90) and an interval of low variance (1920-60). The ENSO-monsoon variance also contains a modulation of ENSO-monsoon amplitudes on a 12-20-yr timescale. The annual-cycle (1 yr) variance time series of Nino3 SST and Indian rainfall is negatively correlated with the interannual ENSO signal. The 1-yr variance is larger during 1935-60, suggesting a negative correlation between annual-cycle variance and ENSO variance on interdecadal timescales. The method of wavelet coherency is applied to the ENSO and monsoon indexes. The Nino3 SST and Indian rainfall are found to be highly coherent, especially during intervals of high variance. The Nino3 SST and Indian rainfall are approximately 180°out of phase and show a gradual increase in phase difference versus Fourier period. All of the results are shown to be robust with respect to different datasets and analysis methods.