Risk methodology for multimedia projects assessments

Abstract

The paper describes a methodology for performing quantitative risk analysis of multimedia projects, as developed in the ACTS projects OPTIMUM and TERA. A framework for risk analysis is presented, encompassing key elements such as choice of probability density functions, correlation between important variables, simulation performance, methodology for cost predictions, demand forecasts, tariff predictions and associated uncertainties. The TERA tool for techno-economic evaluation is presented and the important steps in network evaluation identified. The paper examines how much the most critical factors contribute to the overall risk profile of telecommunications operator projects and studies the dependencies between variables.