Short Term Prediction of Infectious Diseases Patients from Prescription Surveillance

Abstract

In Japan, the incidence of almost all common pediatric infectious diseases has been monitored, with 7 - 10 day delays, at medical institutions through the National Official Sentinel Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NOSSID). On the other hand, based on prescriptions filled at external pharmacies, Prescription Surveillance (PS) collects information and provides estimated numbers of influenza, varicella, and gastroenteritis infectious (GI) patients to the public the following morning. For precise, and real-time estimation of incidences of common pediatric infectious diseases, we evaluated predictive power of PS for diseases other than influenza, varicella, and GI. Results demonstrated that PS information has sufficient predictive power for pharyngoconjunctival fever, group A streptococcal pharyngitis, exanthem subitum, and mumps, some predictive power for RS virus infection, erythema infectiosum and herpangina, but insufficient predictive power for hand, foot and mouth disease.