Adaptation, flexibility and project decision-making with climate change uncertainties

Abstract

Project planning in the future must directly address both climate change and uncertainties about it. This paper presents the use of classical decision criteria, such as maximin and minimax regret, and approaches for adapting to climate change given the uncertainties. Adaptation strategies can help reduce the effects of uncertainties by allowing for adjustments in designs as the future climate evolves, although at a cost for such future flexibility. Adding such options and evaluating them against other design options using the decision criteria can provide valuable information to decision-makers and other stakeholders during project planning. A hypothetical example of a hydroelectric project illustrates the use of these approaches. © 2012 Copyright IAIA.