Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reconstructions and instrumentally observed multidecadal climate variability: A comparison of indicators

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has an important role in the Earth's climate system, but it remains unclear how the instrumentally observed multidecadal variability of the Earth's climate is related to the AMOC. We carried out a comprehensive evaluation of five representative indicators of the AMOC, including one atmospheric index based on the effect of accumulated atmospheric forcing on the AMOC and four oceanographic indices using surface and subsurface oceanographic variables in the North Atlantic Ocean. We compared reconstructions of the AMOC against measurement records and analysed the relationships with the multidecadal variability of the annual mean surface air temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic, Northern Hemisphere and South Atlantic. All the AMOC indicators show a weakening trend during the most recent decade, which is in good agreement with the RAPID measurement record of the AMOC. Besides, the atmospheric reconstruction shows the best agreement with the observed low-frequency variation in the AMOC since 2004. The multidecadal variability in hemispheric/regional surface temperatures is closely related to all the AMOC reconstructions and opposite relationships are observed between the North Atlantic and South Atlantic oceans. The multidecadal surface air temperature anomalies associated with the variations in the AMOC are most pronounced for the atmospheric reconstruction index, which leads the variations in the surface air temperature by 4–5 years. Among the oceanographic indicators, the reconstructions using subsurface oceanographic variables performed best in terms of the relationship with the variations in the multidecadal surface air temperature.