¿Qué ha fallado en la macroeconomía y finanzas suramericanas desde los años noventa?

Abstract

The macroeconomic experiences of five South American nations -Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru- are examined since the 1990s. Common features in reforms and macroeconomic policies as well as common cyclical breaking points are stressed, which overcome some relevant differences that are presented. It is analyzed how, notwithstanding price level stabilization and improved fiscal discipline achievements, a mediocre economic growth is recorded (3.2% since the 1990s) which has been associated to a low investment ratio. Its causes are traced to an intensive macroeconomic instability -particularly, of aggregate demand and the real exchange rate- a sort of roller coaster suffered by the producers of GDP. This instability appears to be determined by cyclical capital flows and terms of trade. It is concluded that the "incompleteness" of macroeconomic balances is at the core of the lack of development convergence.