Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)

Abstract

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) is a DMDU approach that explicitly includes decision making over time. The essence is proactive and dynamic planning in response to how the future actually unfolds. DAPP explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. It opens the decision space and helps to overcome policy paralysis due to deep uncertainty. There are different routes that can achieve the objectives under changing conditions (like ‘different roads leading to Rome’). Policy actions have an uncertain design life and might fail sooner or later to continue achieving objectives as the operating conditions change (i.e. they reach an adaptation tipping point (ATP)). Similarly, opportunity tipping points may occur. Multiple pathways are typically visualized in a metro map or decision tree, with time or changing conditions on one of the axes. DAPP supports the design of a dynamic adaptive strategy that includes initial actions, long-term options, and adaptation signals to identify when to implement the long-term options or revisit decisions.