A multi-sourced data retrodiction of remotely sensed terrestrial water storage changes for West Africa

Abstract

Remotely sensed terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC) from the past Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission cover a relatively short period (≈15 years). This short span presents challenges for long-term studies (e.g., drought assessment) in data-poor regions like West Africa (WA). Thus, we developed a Nonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous input (NARX) neural network to backcast GRACE-derived TWSC series to 1979 overWA. We trained the network to simulate TWSC based on its relationship with rainfall, evaporation, surface temperature, net-precipitation, soil moisture, and climate indices. The reconstructed TWSC series, upon validation, indicate high skill performance with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 11.83 mm/month and coefficient correlation of 0.89. The validation was performed considering only 15% of the available TWSC data not used to train the network. More so, we used the total water content changes (TWCC) synthesized from Noah driven global land data assimilation system in a simulation under the same condition as the GRACE data. The results based on this simulation show the feasibility of the NARX networks in hindcasting TWCC with RMSE of 8.06 mm/month and correlation coefficient of 0.88. The NARX network proved robust to adequately reconstruct GRACE-derived TWSC estimates back to 1979.